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Race · U.S. House · New Jersey · 2026

New Jersey District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New Jersey District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Josh Gottheimer incumbent
94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Adam Rueda
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Sean Kirrane
6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJosh Gottheimer

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
94% Josh Gottheimer · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Josh Gottheimer 94%
REP Sean Kirrane 6%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+4 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 54.6% 2024 general · margin 11.3%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMGottheimerOTHRuedaREPKirrane
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Josh Gottheimer$5,788,812.15
Adam RuedaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Sean Kirrane$103,741.74
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Josh Gottheimer$12,970,258.43
Adam RuedaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Sean Kirrane$103,545.80
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Josh Gottheimer$13,531,046.78
Adam RuedaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Sean Kirrane$195.94
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Josh GottheimerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Adam RuedaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Sean KirraneNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Josh GottheimerD+4seat-level
Adam RuedaD+4seat-level
Sean KirraneD+4seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+4
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +4.010

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Josh GottheimerDEM208,35954.56%
    Mary Jo GuinchardREP165,28743.28%
    Beau ForteGRN3,4280.90%
    James TosoneLIB2,4400.64%
    Aamir ArifOTH2,3750.62%

    Total votes 381,889 · winning margin 11.28% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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