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Race · U.S. House · New Jersey · 2026

New Jersey District 8 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New Jersey District 8

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Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 8 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Rob Menendez incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Aristotle Eliopoulos
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Craig Honts
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Da'Shone Hughey
—Not published for this candidate
IncumbentRob Menendez

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Rob Menendez · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Rob Menendez 99%
IND Aristotle Eliopoulos 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+20 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 59.2% 2024 general · margin 24.5%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMenendezINDEliopoulosOTHHontsOTHHughey
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Rob Menendez$2,236,501.68
Aristotle EliopoulosNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Craig HontsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Da'Shone HugheyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Rob Menendez$1,790,787.41
Aristotle EliopoulosNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Craig HontsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Da'Shone HugheyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Rob Menendez$722,399.83
Aristotle EliopoulosNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Craig HontsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Da'Shone HugheyNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Rob MenendezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Aristotle EliopoulosNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Craig HontsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Da'Shone HugheyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Rob MenendezD+20seat-level
Aristotle EliopoulosD+20seat-level
Craig HontsD+20seat-level
Da'Shone HugheyD+20seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+20
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +20.294

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Robert MenendezDEM116,43459.17%
    Anthony ValdesREP68,15234.64%
    Christian J. RobbinsGRN5,4652.78%
    Pablo R. OliveraOTH4,2952.18%
    Lea ShermanOTH2,4191.23%

    Total votes 196,765 · winning margin 24.54% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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