NJ-10 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 10 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

LaMonica McIver incumbent

>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Carmen Bucco

<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentLaMonica McIver

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

>99% LaMonica McIver · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM LaMonica McIver >99%

REP Carmen Bucco <1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+29 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 74.4% 2024 general · margin 52.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMciverREPBucco

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

LaMonica McIver$2,516,563.31

Carmen Bucco$8,931.33

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

LaMonica McIver$1,782,580.46

Carmen Bucco$6,638.74

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

LaMonica McIver$897,195.32

Carmen Bucco$2,292.59

Latest pollpercent, as stored

LaMonica McIverNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Carmen BuccoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

LaMonica McIverD+29seat-level

Carmen BuccoD+29seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+29

Lean (D minus R, points): +28.996

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
LaMonica McIver	DEM	182,020	74.42%
Carmen Bucco	REP	54,405	22.24%
Jon Carlos Serrano	GRN	3,198	1.31%
Cynthia A. Johnson	OTH	2,132	0.87%
Michelle Middleton	OTH	1,686	0.69%
Donna Weiss	OTH	1,136	0.46%

Total votes 244,577 · winning margin 52.18% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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