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Race · U.S. House · New Jersey · 2026

New Jersey District 11 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New Jersey District 11

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Race header

U.S. House, New Jersey District 11 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Analilia Mejia incumbent
96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Alan B. Bond
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Joe Hathaway
4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentAnalilia Mejia

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
96% Analilia Mejia · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Analilia Mejia 96%
REP Joe Hathaway 4%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+6 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 56.5% 2024 general · margin 14.7%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMejiaOTHBondREPHathaway
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Analilia Mejia$2,229,339.31
Alan B. BondNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Hathaway$837,601.01
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Analilia Mejia$2,113,872.13
Alan B. BondNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Hathaway$795,427.54
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Analilia Mejia$115,467.18
Alan B. BondNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Joe Hathaway$42,173.47
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Analilia MejiaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Alan B. BondNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Joe HathawayNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Analilia MejiaD+6seat-level
Alan B. BondD+6seat-level
Joe HathawayD+6seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+6
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +6.428

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Mikie SherrillDEM222,58356.53%
    Joseph BelnomeREP164,55641.79%
    Lily BenavidesGRN4,7801.21%
    Joshua LanzaraOTH1,8320.47%

    Total votes 393,751 · winning margin 14.74% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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