NM-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New Mexico District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Melanie Ann Stansbury incumbent

96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Ndidiamaka Okpareke

4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentMelanie Ann Stansbury

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

96% Melanie Ann Stansbury · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Melanie Ann Stansbury 96%

REP Ndidiamaka Okpareke 4%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Stansbury 53.0% · Okpareke 35.0% Research & Polling Inc. / Albuquerque Journal · 2026-10-09

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+5 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 56.4% 2024 general · margin 12.7%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMStansburyREPOkpareke

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Melanie Ann Stansbury$1,721,315.41

Ndidiamaka Okpareke$174,529.13

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Melanie Ann Stansbury$1,556,278.14

Ndidiamaka Okpareke$116,984.34

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Melanie Ann Stansbury$310,745.93

Ndidiamaka Okpareke$57,544.79

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Melanie Ann Stansbury53.0%Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-10-09

Ndidiamaka Okpareke35.0%Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-10-09

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Melanie Ann StansburyD+5seat-level

Ndidiamaka OkparekeD+5seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-09

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Stansbury	Okpareke	Others
Research & Polling Inc.Albuquerque Journal	2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09	LV · n=380	53.0%	35.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+5

Lean (D minus R, points): +4.577

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Melanie Ann Stansbury	DEM	193,203	56.37%
Steve Jones	REP	149,546	43.63%

Total votes 342,749 · winning margin 12.74% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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