Race header
DEMNominee
Gabriel Vasquez
incumbent
90%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Greg Cunningham
10%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGabriel Vasquez
Hume Outlook
90% Gabriel Vasquez · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Gabriel Vasquez
90%
REP
Greg Cunningham
10%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Vasquez 46.0% · Cunningham 43.0%
SurveyUSA / KOB-TV (Albuquerque) · 2026-09-02
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+1
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
DEM 52.1%
2024 general · margin 4.2%
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMVasquezREPCunningham
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Gabriel Vasquez$5,518,618.26
Greg Cunningham$2,527,072.03
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Gabriel Vasquez$5,060,721.84
Greg Cunningham$2,183,324.72
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Gabriel Vasquez$496,981.55
Greg Cunningham$343,747.31
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Gabriel Vasquez46.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-09-02
Greg Cunningham43.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-09-02
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Gabriel VasquezD+1seat-level
Greg CunninghamD+1seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Vasquez | Cunningham | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAKOB-TV (Albuquerque) | 2026-08-28 to 2026-09-02 | LV · n=554 | 46.0% | 43.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+1
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +1.133
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Vasquez | DEM | 138,177 | 52.08% |
| Yvette Herrell | REP | 127,145 | 47.92% |
Total votes 265,322 · winning margin 4.16% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.