NM-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, New Mexico District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Teresa Leger Fernandez incumbent

96%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Martin Ruben Zamora

4%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentTeresa Leger Fernandez

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

96% Teresa Leger Fernandez · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Teresa Leger Fernandez 96%

REP Martin Ruben Zamora 4%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Fernandez 53.0% · Zamora 39.0% Research & Polling Inc. / Albuquerque Journal · 2026-10-09

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+4 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 56.3% 2024 general · margin 12.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMFernandezREPZamora

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Teresa Leger Fernandez$1,578,389.15

Martin Ruben Zamora$605,834.13

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Teresa Leger Fernandez$1,468,917.18

Martin Ruben Zamora$561,081.93

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Teresa Leger Fernandez$517,397.54

Martin Ruben Zamora$44,752.20

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Teresa Leger Fernandez53.0%Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-10-09

Martin Ruben Zamora39.0%Research & Polling Inc. · 2026-10-09

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Teresa Leger FernandezD+4seat-level

Martin Ruben ZamoraD+4seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-09

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Fernandez	Zamora	Others
Research & Polling Inc.Albuquerque Journal	2026-10-01 to 2026-10-09	LV · n=362	53.0%	39.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+4

Lean (D minus R, points): +3.791

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Teresa Leger Fernandez	DEM	162,342	56.29%
Sharon E. Clahchischilliage	REP	126,085	43.71%

Total votes 288,427 · winning margin 12.57% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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