Share this race
Download share card (PNG)
Race header
DEMNominee
Ben Ray Luján
incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Larry E. Marker
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBen Ray Luján
Hume Outlook
97% Ben Ray Luján · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Ben Ray Luján
97%
REP
Larry E. Marker
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Luján 54.0% · Marker 36.0%
SurveyUSA / KOB-TV (Albuquerque) · 2026-09-30
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+4
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
DEM 51.7%
2020 general · margin 6.1%
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMLujánREPMarker
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ben Ray Luján$6,460,521.86
Larry E. Marker$99,229.65
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ben Ray Luján$4,831,038.40
Larry E. Marker$90,122.32
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ben Ray Luján$2,843,276.35
Larry E. Marker$88.07
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ben Ray Luján54.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-09-30
Larry E. Marker36.0%SurveyUSA · 2026-09-30
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ben Ray LujánD+4seat-level
Larry E. MarkerD+4seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Luján | Marker | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSAKOB-TV (Albuquerque) | 2026-09-25 to 2026-09-30 | LV · n=576 | 54.0% | 36.0% | none |
| Research & Polling Inc.Albuquerque Journal | 2026-08-21 to 2026-08-28 | LV · n=516 | 53.0% | 38.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+4
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +3.631
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2020 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Ray Luján | DEM | 474,483 | 51.73% |
| Mark V. Ronchetti | REP | 418,483 | 45.62% |
| Bob Walsh | LIB | 24,271 | 2.65% |
Total votes 917,237 · winning margin 6.11% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.