Race header
DEMNominee
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson
31%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Lynn Chapman
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
David Flippo
69%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available
Hume Outlook
69% David Flippo · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
David Flippo
69%
DEM
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson
31%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Benitez-Thompson 44.0% · Flippo 46.0%
Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+8
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 55.0%
2024 general · margin 19.0%
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMBenitez-ThompsonOTHChapmanREPFlippo
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson$1,054,466.93
Lynn ChapmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Flippo$2,934,107.53
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson$872,617.73
Lynn ChapmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Flippo$2,787,661.38
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson$181,849.20
Lynn ChapmanNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Flippo$161,162.06
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Teresa F. Benitez-Thompson44.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-13
Lynn ChapmanNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-13)
David Flippo46.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Teresa F. Benitez-ThompsonR+8seat-level
Lynn ChapmanR+8seat-level
David FlippoR+8seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Benitez-Thompson | Chapman | Flippo | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-13 | LV · n=560 | 44.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+8
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -8.057
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark E. Amodei | REP | 219,919 | 55.04% |
| Greg Kidd | OTH | 144,064 | 36.05% |
| Lynn Chapman | OTH | 19,784 | 4.95% |
| Javi “Trujillo” Tachiquin | LIB | 15,817 | 3.96% |
Total votes 399,584 · winning margin 18.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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