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Race · U.S. House · New York · 2026

New York District 1 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New York District 1

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Race header

U.S. House, New York District 1 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Christopher J. Gallant
39%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Nicholas J. Lalota incumbent
61%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNicholas J. Lalota

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
61% Nicholas J. Lalota · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Nicholas J. Lalota 61%
DEM Christopher J. Gallant 39%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+4 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 55.2% 2024 general · margin 10.4%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMGallantREPLalota
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Christopher J. Gallant$1,735,637.70
Nicholas J. LalotaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Christopher J. Gallant$1,309,644.61
Nicholas J. LalotaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Christopher J. Gallant$425,993.09
Nicholas J. LalotaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Christopher J. GallantNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Nicholas J. LalotaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Christopher J. GallantR+4seat-level
Nicholas J. LalotaR+4seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+4
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -4.195

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Nicholas J. LalotaREP226,28555.22%
    John P. AvlonDEM183,54044.78%

    Total votes 409,825 · winning margin 10.43% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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