NY-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Thomas R. Suozzi incumbent

92%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Michael J. LiPetri Jr

8%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentThomas R. Suozzi

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

92% Thomas R. Suozzi · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Thomas R. Suozzi 92%

REP Michael J. LiPetri Jr 8%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+3 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 51.8% 2024 general · margin 3.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMSuozziREPLipetri

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Thomas R. Suozzi$7,599,603.36

Michael J. LiPetri Jr$2,584,014.08

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Thomas R. Suozzi$6,399,602.89

Michael J. LiPetri Jr$2,143,460.87

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Thomas R. Suozzi$3,234,341.64

Michael J. LiPetri Jr$456,872.81

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Thomas R. SuozziNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Michael J. LiPetri JrNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Thomas R. SuozziD+3seat-level

Michael J. LiPetri JrD+3seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+3

Lean (D minus R, points): +3.344

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Thomas R. Suozzi	DEM	187,651	51.79%
Michael J. Lipetri, JR.	REP	174,693	48.21%

Total votes 362,344 · winning margin 3.58% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.