NY-04 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 4 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Laura A. Gillen incumbent

94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

LIBOn the ballot

Blay Tarnoff

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

Jeanine C. Driscoll

6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentLaura A. Gillen

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

94% Laura A. Gillen · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Laura A. Gillen 94%

REP Jeanine C. Driscoll 6%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+5 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 51.1% 2024 general · margin 2.3%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMGillenLIBTarnoffREPDriscoll

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Laura A. Gillen$6,221,631.04through 2026-10-14

Blay Tarnoff$24,572.00through 2026-09-30

Jeanine C. Driscoll$684,947.48through 2026-10-14

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Laura A. Gillen$3,032,184.05through 2026-10-14

Blay Tarnoff$24,506.00through 2026-09-30

Jeanine C. Driscoll$682,394.40through 2026-10-14

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Laura A. Gillen$3,212,650.31through 2026-10-14

Blay Tarnoff$66.00through 2026-09-30

Jeanine C. Driscoll$2,553.08through 2026-10-14

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Laura A. GillenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Blay TarnoffNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Jeanine C. DriscollNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Laura A. GillenD+5seat-level

Blay TarnoffD+5seat-level

Jeanine C. DriscollD+5seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+5

Lean (D minus R, points): +5.078

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Laura A. Gillen	DEM	191,760	51.15%
Anthony D’esposito	REP	183,157	48.85%

Total votes 374,917 · winning margin 2.29% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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