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Race · U.S. House · New York · 2026

New York District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New York District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, New York District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Gregory W. Meeks incumbent
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
George Marsh
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentGregory W. Meeks

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
>99% Gregory W. Meeks · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Gregory W. Meeks >99%
REP George Marsh <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+31 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 72.9% 2024 general · margin 48.4%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMeeksREPMarsh
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Gregory W. Meeks$2,283,140.15
George MarshNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Gregory W. Meeks$2,413,451.24
George MarshNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Gregory W. Meeks$2,098,240.98
George MarshNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Gregory W. MeeksNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
George MarshNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Gregory W. MeeksD+31seat-level
George MarshD+31seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+31
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +30.814

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Gregory W. MeeksDEM168,42572.93%
    Paul KingREP56,68924.55%

    Total votes 230,954 · winning margin 48.38% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Percentages are of the MEDSL total, which also counts the Conservative line (no candidate named) 5,840; the named-candidate shares are therefore lower than a share of valid candidate votes.

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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