NY-11 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 11 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Mike DeCillis

11%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Nicole Malliotakis incumbent

89%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNicole Malliotakis

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

89% Nicole Malliotakis · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Nicole Malliotakis 89%

DEM Mike DeCillis 11%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+6 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 64.1% 2024 general · margin 28.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMDecillisREPMalliotakis

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Mike DeCillis$183,305.50

Nicole Malliotakis$3,315,036.94

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Mike DeCillis$75,417.05

Nicole Malliotakis$1,872,943.71

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Mike DeCillis$107,888.45

Nicole Malliotakis$2,788,339.69

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Mike DeCillisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Nicole MalliotakisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Mike DeCillisR+6seat-level

Nicole MalliotakisR+6seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+6

Lean (D minus R, points): -5.833

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Nicole Malliotakis	REP	167,099	64.10%
Andrea S. Morse	DEM	93,586	35.90%

Total votes 260,685 · winning margin 28.20% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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