NY-12 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 12 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Micah C. Lasher

>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

OTHOn the ballot

Karen Ortiz

—Not published for this candidate

OTHOn the ballot

Wilneida Negron

—Not published for this candidate

REPNominee

Caroline Shinkle

<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

>99% Micah C. Lasher · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Micah C. Lasher >99%

REP Caroline Shinkle <1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+34 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 80.5% 2024 general · margin 61.0%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-06-30, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMLasherOTHOrtizOTHNegronREPShinkle

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Micah C. Lasher$3,493,973.60through 2026-10-14

Karen Ortiz$46,267.96through 2026-06-30

Wilneida Negron$57,807.20through 2026-09-30

Caroline Shinkle$272,962.88through 2026-10-14

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Micah C. Lasher$3,184,764.31through 2026-10-14

Karen Ortiz$22,799.44through 2026-06-30

Wilneida Negron$52,277.25through 2026-09-30

Caroline Shinkle$146,539.35through 2026-10-14

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Micah C. Lasher$309,209.29through 2026-10-14

Karen Ortiz$23,468.52through 2026-06-30

Wilneida Negron$6,086.87through 2026-09-30

Caroline Shinkle$126,423.53through 2026-10-14

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Micah C. LasherNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Karen OrtizNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Wilneida NegronNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Caroline ShinkleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Micah C. LasherD+34seat-level

Karen OrtizD+34seat-level

Wilneida NegronD+34seat-level

Caroline ShinkleD+34seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+34

Lean (D minus R, points): +34.368

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Jerrold Nadler	DEM	260,165	80.51%
Michael K. Zumbluskas	REP	62,989	19.49%

Total votes 323,154 · winning margin 61.02% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Jun 30, 2026 or Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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