NY-14 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 14 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Diamant Hysenaj

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentAlexandria Ocasio-Cortez

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 99%

REP Diamant Hysenaj 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+28 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 69.2% 2024 general · margin 38.4%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMOcasio-CortezREPHysenaj

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$38,029,039.10

Diamant Hysenaj$446,003.85

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$24,188,385.41

Diamant Hysenaj$405,333.06

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez$17,575,300.57

Diamant Hysenaj$40,670.79

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Diamant HysenajNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Alexandria Ocasio-CortezD+28seat-level

Diamant HysenajD+28seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+28

Lean (D minus R, points): +27.892

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez	DEM	132,714	69.20%
Tina Forte	REP	59,078	30.80%

Total votes 191,792 · winning margin 38.39% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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