Influence no longer invisible Races · NY-15 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · New York · 2026

New York District 15 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New York District 15

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Race header

U.S. House, New York District 15 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Ritchie Torres incumbent
>99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
OTHOn the ballot
Andre Easton
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Gonzalo Duran
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Jose Vega
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Stylo Sapaskis
<1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentRitchie Torres

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
>99% Ritchie Torres · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Ritchie Torres >99%
REP Stylo Sapaskis <1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+36 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 76.5% 2024 general · margin 55.4%

Side by side

5 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMTorresOTHEastonOTHDuranOTHVegaREPSapaskis
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Ritchie Torres$7,172,392.64
Andre Easton$93,798.98
Gonzalo DuranNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jose Vega$344,809.74
Stylo SapaskisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Ritchie Torres$4,760,732.63
Andre Easton$83,490.04
Gonzalo DuranNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jose Vega$340,441.39
Stylo SapaskisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Ritchie Torres$13,835,641.98
Andre Easton$827.94
Gonzalo DuranNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Jose Vega$5,641.78
Stylo SapaskisNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Ritchie TorresNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Andre EastonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Gonzalo DuranNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jose VegaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Stylo SapaskisNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Ritchie TorresD+36seat-level
Andre EastonD+36seat-level
Gonzalo DuranD+36seat-level
Jose VegaD+36seat-level
Stylo SapaskisD+36seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+36
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +35.704

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Ritchie TorresDEM130,39276.48%
    Gonzalo DuranREP36,01021.12%
    Jose VegaOTH4,0862.40%

    Total votes 170,488 · winning margin 55.36% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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