Race header
DEMNominee
Cait Conley
84%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Mike Lawler
incumbent
16%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Lawler
Hume Outlook
84% Cait Conley · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Cait Conley
84%
REP
Mike Lawler
16%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Conley 48.0% · Lawler 46.0%
Emerson College / WPIX · 2026-09-29
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
D+3
as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat
REP 52.2%
2024 general · margin 6.3%
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMConleyREPLawler
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Cait Conley$10,706,692.07
Mike Lawler$10,317,627.15
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Cait Conley$9,758,152.57
Mike Lawler$8,527,471.61
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Cait Conley$948,539.50
Mike Lawler$1,959,524.06
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Cait Conley48.0%Emerson College · 2026-09-29
Mike Lawler46.0%Emerson College · 2026-09-29
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Cait ConleyD+3seat-level
Mike LawlerD+3seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Conley | Lawler | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson CollegeWPIX | 2026-09-27 to 2026-09-29 | LV · n=400 | 48.0% | 46.0% | none |
| co/efficient | 2026-07-20 to 2026-07-22 | LV · n=1,292 | 45.0% | 50.0% | none |
| FM3 ResearchHouse Majority PAC | 2026-06-27 to 2026-07-01 | LV · n=509 | 51.0% | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
D+3
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- +2.888
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2024 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Lawler | REP | 197,845 | 52.16% |
| Mondaire L. Jones | DEM | 173,899 | 45.85% |
| Anthony Frascone | OTH | 7,530 | 1.99% |
Total votes 379,274 · winning margin 6.31% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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