Influence no longer invisible Races · NY-18 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · New York · 2026

New York District 18 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New York District 18

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Race header

U.S. House, New York District 18 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Pat Ryan incumbent
95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Jackie Mary Auringer
5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentPat Ryan

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
95% Pat Ryan · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Pat Ryan 95%
REP Jackie Mary Auringer 5%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+1 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 57.2% 2024 general · margin 14.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMRyanREPAuringer
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Pat Ryan$5,359,733.43
Jackie Mary Auringer$158,702.70
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Pat Ryan$2,983,087.83
Jackie Mary Auringer$136,999.69
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Pat Ryan$2,543,836.96
Jackie Mary Auringer$21,703.01
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Pat RyanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jackie Mary AuringerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Pat RyanD+1seat-level
Jackie Mary AuringerD+1seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+1
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +1.423

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Pat RyanDEM207,10657.17%
    Alison EspositoREP155,12942.83%

    Total votes 362,235 · winning margin 14.35% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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