NY-19 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 19 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Josh Riley incumbent

81%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Peter K. Oberacker

19%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJosh Riley

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

81% Josh Riley · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Josh Riley 81%

REP Peter K. Oberacker 19%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+1 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 51.1% 2024 general · margin 2.2%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMRileyREPOberacker

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Josh Riley$5,986,868.69

Peter K. Oberacker$1,424,570.72

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Josh Riley$4,263,509.63

Peter K. Oberacker$1,401,415.23

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Josh Riley$1,791,678.67

Peter K. Oberacker$23,155.49

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Josh RileyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Peter K. OberackerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Josh RileyR+1seat-level

Peter K. OberackerR+1seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+1

Lean (D minus R, points): -0.721

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Josh Riley	DEM	192,647	51.11%
Marcus J. Molinaro	REP	184,290	48.89%

Total votes 376,937 · winning margin 2.22% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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