NY-20 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 20 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Paul D. Tonko incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Ralph F. Ambrosio

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentPaul D. Tonko

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Paul D. Tonko · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Paul D. Tonko 98%

REP Ralph F. Ambrosio 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+7 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 61.1% 2024 general · margin 22.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMTonkoREPAmbrosio

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Paul D. Tonko$1,247,202.32

Ralph F. Ambrosio$61,545.17

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Paul D. Tonko$1,355,968.23

Ralph F. Ambrosio$54,202.52

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Paul D. Tonko$490,736.00

Ralph F. Ambrosio$7,342.65

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Paul D. TonkoNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Ralph F. AmbrosioNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Paul D. TonkoD+7seat-level

Ralph F. AmbrosioD+7seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+7

Lean (D minus R, points): +6.740

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Paul D. Tonko	DEM	221,997	61.13%
Kevin M. Waltz	REP	141,151	38.87%

Total votes 363,148 · winning margin 22.26% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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