NY-21 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, New York District 21 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Blake Gendebien

21%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Anthony Constantino

79%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

79% Anthony Constantino · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Anthony Constantino 79%

DEM Blake Gendebien 21%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Constantino 46.0% · Gendebien 44.0% Public Policy Polling / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-13

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+11 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 62.0% 2024 general · margin 24.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMGendebienREPConstantino

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Blake Gendebien$7,655,529.27

Anthony Constantino$14,464,951.19

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Blake Gendebien$7,543,858.96

Anthony Constantino$14,472,853.54

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Blake Gendebien$364,011.80

Anthony Constantino$2,298,984.48

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Blake Gendebien44.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-13

Anthony Constantino46.0%Public Policy Polling · 2026-10-13

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Blake GendebienR+11seat-level

Anthony ConstantinoR+11seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

4 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-13

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Gendebien	Constantino	Others
Public Policy PollingHouse Majority PAC	2026-10-12 to 2026-10-13	LV · n=613	44.0%	46.0%	none
Siena UniversityWAMC-FM; Albany Times Union; WPTZ	2026-09-30 to 2026-10-06	LV · n=496	46.0%	42.0%	Christopher Schmidt 5.0%
J.L. Partners	2026-08-15 to 2026-08-17	LV · n=500	40.0%	53.0%	none
SurveyUSAWNYT	2026-08-04 to 2026-08-08	A · n=800	43.0%	39.0%	Chris Schmidt 5.0%

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+11

Lean (D minus R, points): -10.540

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Elise M. Stefanik	REP	215,996	61.99%
Paula Collins	DEM	132,447	38.01%

Total votes 348,443 · winning margin 23.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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