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Race · U.S. House · New York · 2026

New York District 22 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, New York District 22

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Race header

U.S. House, New York District 22 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
John W. Mannion incumbent
95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Kailee Buller
5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJohn W. Mannion

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
95% John W. Mannion · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM John W. Mannion 95%
REP Kailee Buller 5%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+3 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 54.6% 2024 general · margin 9.1%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMannionREPBuller
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
John W. Mannion$3,240,826.28
Kailee Buller$464,688.44
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
John W. Mannion$2,352,696.07
Kailee Buller$304,550.35
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
John W. Mannion$1,016,371.51
Kailee Buller$160,138.09
Latest pollpercent, as stored
John W. MannionNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kailee BullerNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
John W. MannionD+3seat-level
Kailee BullerD+3seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+3
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +2.980

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    John W. MannionDEM194,45054.56%
    Brandon WilliamsREP161,93945.44%

    Total votes 356,389 · winning margin 9.12% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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