NY-23 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 23 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Aaron Gies

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Nicholas A. Langworthy incumbent

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNicholas A. Langworthy

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Nicholas A. Langworthy · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Nicholas A. Langworthy 97%

DEM Aaron Gies 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 65.8% 2024 general · margin 31.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMGiesREPLangworthy

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Aaron Gies$678,483.72

Nicholas A. Langworthy$2,675,792.78

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Aaron Gies$618,262.18

Nicholas A. Langworthy$1,775,424.17

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Aaron Gies$54,077.18

Nicholas A. Langworthy$1,994,176.70

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Aaron GiesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Nicholas A. LangworthyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Aaron GiesR+13seat-level

Nicholas A. LangworthyR+13seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+13

Lean (D minus R, points): -12.539

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Nicholas A. Langworthy	REP	246,969	65.79%
Thomas A. Carle	DEM	128,397	34.21%

Total votes 375,366 · winning margin 31.59% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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