NY-24 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 24 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Alissa J. Ellman

5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Claudia Tenney incumbent

95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentClaudia Tenney

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

95% Claudia Tenney · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Claudia Tenney 95%

DEM Alissa J. Ellman 5%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 65.7% 2024 general · margin 31.3%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMEllmanREPTenney

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Alissa J. Ellman$452,166.23

Claudia Tenney$3,084,890.79

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Alissa J. Ellman$405,923.87

Claudia Tenney$2,604,152.23

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Alissa J. Ellman$46,242.36

Claudia Tenney$835,740.92

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Alissa J. EllmanNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Claudia TenneyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Alissa J. EllmanR+13seat-level

Claudia TenneyR+13seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+13

Lean (D minus R, points): -13.147

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Claudia Tenney	REP	235,867	65.67%
David Wagenhauser	DEM	123,317	34.33%

Total votes 359,184 · winning margin 31.33% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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