NY-25 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, New York District 25 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Joseph D. Morelle incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Virginia E. McIntyre

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentJoseph D. Morelle

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Joseph D. Morelle · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Joseph D. Morelle 98%

REP Virginia E. McIntyre 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+8 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 60.8% 2024 general · margin 21.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMMorelleREPMcintyre

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Joseph D. Morelle$2,247,172.87

Virginia E. McIntyre$55,458.88

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Joseph D. Morelle$2,159,254.82

Virginia E. McIntyre$66,314.05

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Joseph D. Morelle$468,122.33

Virginia E. McIntyre$-10,855.17

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Joseph D. MorelleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Virginia E. McIntyreNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Joseph D. MorelleD+8seat-level

Virginia E. McIntyreD+8seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+8

Lean (D minus R, points): +7.694

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Joseph D. Morelle	DEM	219,175	60.82%
Gregg A. Sadwick	REP	141,195	39.18%

Total votes 360,370 · winning margin 21.64% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.