Race header
DEMNominee
Brian Poindexter
59%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Max L. Miller
incumbent
41%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMax L. Miller
Hume Outlook
59% Brian Poindexter · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Brian Poindexter
59%
REP
Max L. Miller
41%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Miller 35.0% · Poindexter 43.0%
Bedrock Polling / The Next 50; Iron Workers International · 2026-08-10
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMPoindexterREPMiller
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brian Poindexter$3,720,341.61
Max L. Miller$3,324,941.88
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brian Poindexter$2,926,666.41
Max L. Miller$3,363,842.44
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brian Poindexter$793,675.20
Max L. Miller$135,628.83
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brian Poindexter43.0%Bedrock Polling · 2026-08-10
Max L. Miller35.0%Bedrock Polling · 2026-08-10
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brian PoindexterNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Max L. MillerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
2 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Poindexter | Miller | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bedrock PollingThe Next 50; Iron Workers International | 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-10 | LV · n=866 | 43.0% | 35.0% | none |
| Tavern Research | 2026-08-04 to 2026-08-05 | LV · n=560 | 54.0% | 46.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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