Race header
DEMNominee
Marcy Kaptur
incumbent
60%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Derek Merrin
40%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMarcy Kaptur
Hume Outlook
60% Marcy Kaptur · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Marcy Kaptur
60%
REP
Derek Merrin
40%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Kaptur 48.0% · Merrin 48.0%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-09-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMKapturREPMerrin
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Marcy Kaptur$5,910,480.74
Derek Merrin$2,217,820.58
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Marcy Kaptur$5,661,899.71
Derek Merrin$1,845,005.57
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Marcy Kaptur$697,507.52
Derek Merrin$449,466.16
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Marcy Kaptur48.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-09-23
Derek Merrin48.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-09-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Marcy KapturNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Derek MerrinNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Kaptur | Merrin | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2026-09-22 to 2026-09-23 | LV · n=481 | 48.0% | 48.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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