Race header
DEMNominee
Kristina Knickerbocker
35%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Thomas F. McMasters
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Michael R. Turner
incumbent
65%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMichael R. Turner
Hume Outlook
65% Michael R. Turner · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Michael R. Turner
65%
DEM
Kristina Knickerbocker
35%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Turner 44.0% · Knickerbocker 47.0% · Mcmasters 4.0%
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMKnickerbockerLIBMcmastersREPTurner
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Kristina Knickerbocker$1,015,877.85
Thomas F. McMastersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael R. Turner$1,315,093.78
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Kristina Knickerbocker$882,432.93
Thomas F. McMastersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael R. Turner$1,420,268.68
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Kristina Knickerbocker$133,444.92
Thomas F. McMastersNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Michael R. Turner$325,250.06
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Kristina Knickerbocker47.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Thomas F. McMasters4.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Michael R. Turner44.0%DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department · 2026-10-13
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Kristina KnickerbockerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Thomas F. McMastersNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Michael R. TurnerNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
1 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Knickerbocker | Mcmasters | Turner | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-13 | LV · n=535 | 47.0% | 4.0% | 44.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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