Race header
DEMNominee
Jerrad Christian
3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Troy Balderson
incumbent
97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTroy Balderson
Hume Outlook
97% Troy Balderson · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Troy Balderson
97%
DEM
Jerrad Christian
3%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMChristianREPBalderson
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jerrad Christian$139,968.16
Troy Balderson$2,187,393.46
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jerrad Christian$119,646.97
Troy Balderson$2,130,839.52
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jerrad Christian$24,078.87
Troy Balderson$1,062,978.76
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jerrad ChristianNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Troy BaldersonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jerrad ChristianNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Troy BaldersonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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