Race header
DEMNominee
Maria Jukic
6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
David Joyce
incumbent
94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentDavid Joyce
Hume Outlook
94% David Joyce · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
David Joyce
94%
DEM
Maria Jukic
6%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Not available
No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
2 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMJukicREPJoyce
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Maria Jukic$118,360.32
David Joyce$1,763,173.71
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Maria Jukic$79,913.14
David Joyce$2,304,353.50
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Maria Jukic$38,447.18
David Joyce$2,201,695.66
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Maria JukicNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
David JoyceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Maria JukicNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
David JoyceNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
0 listed · newest firstNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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