Race header
DEMNominee
Don Leonard
35%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Brennan Barrington
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Mike Carey
incumbent
65%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMike Carey
Hume Outlook
65% Mike Carey · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP
Mike Carey
65%
DEM
Don Leonard
35%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Carey 45.0% · Leonard 48.0%
Hart Research Associates / House Majority PAC · 2026-10-12
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
Not available
The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available
District redrawn; not comparable.
Side by side
3 candidates · 5 measuresMeasureDEMLeonardLIBBarringtonREPCarey
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Don Leonard$1,329,843.67
Brennan BarringtonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Carey$4,184,981.49
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Don Leonard$1,232,136.96
Brennan BarringtonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Carey$3,975,932.73
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Don Leonard$97,706.71
Brennan BarringtonNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Mike Carey$370,343.07
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Don Leonard48.0%Hart Research Associates · 2026-10-12
Brennan BarringtonNot available Not named in the newest listed poll (2026-10-12)
Mike Carey45.0%Hart Research Associates · 2026-10-12
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Don LeonardNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Brennan BarringtonNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Mike CareyNot available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
3 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Leonard | Barrington | Carey | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hart Research AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-12 | LV · n=503 | 48.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Hart Research AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-09-22 to 2026-09-24 | LV · n=500 | 46.0% | not named | 45.0% | none |
| Hart Research AssociatesHouse Majority PAC | 2026-06-23 to 2026-06-25 | LV · n=550 | 40.0% | 3.0% | 45.0% | none |
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
Not available The district lean is held: this state's House map was redrawn, and the plan-aware lean has not yet been cross-checked.
Prior result, this seat
Not available District redrawn; not comparable.
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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