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DEMDemocratic nominee
Sherrod Brown
challenger (former U.S. Senator, 2007-2025)
won May 5, 2026 primary, 89.4%
58%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPRepublican nominee
Jon Husted
incumbent (appointed)
unopposed in the May 5, 2026 primary
42%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJon Husted (R) - appointed January 2025, running
Why it is watchedCook moved this special election from Lean Republican to Toss Up on April 13, 2026, citing former Sen. Sherrod Brown's $12.5 million first-quarter haul and polls showing a dead heat (Cook race page; Fox News, April 13, 2026). Husted, the former lieutenant governor, was appointed by Gov. DeWine after Vance became vice president; Brown lost this state's other seat in 2024 and won the May 5, 2026 Democratic primary with 89.4% (Wikipedia). A Fox News poll Aug 6-10, 2026 had Brown 53-45, with 51% of voters worried Husted is too close to Trump (Fox News, Aug 13, 2026). Libertarian Bill Redpath and independent Greg Levy are also on the ballot (Wikipedia; FEC candidate master).
Also on the ballotWilliam B. Redpath (Libertarian) - Left off the card as a minor-party candidate. Ballot-qualified Libertarian nominee; total receipts $24,200.00, the smallest on this ballot and about a third of independent Greg Levy's $80,348.00, who is kept on the card for contrast. His FEC summary money stays in this file.
Hume Outlook
58% Sherrod Brown · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM
Sherrod Brown
58%
REP
Jon Husted
42%
- Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll
Brown 47.0% · Husted 47.0% · Levy 2.0%
Echelon Insights / NetChoice · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)
R+5
cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat
REP 53.1%
2022 general · margin 6.1%
Side by side
3 candidates · 6 measuresMeasureDEMBrownINDLevyREPHusted
Principal committeeFEC candidate-committee linkage
Sherrod BrownFRIENDS OF SHERROD BROWNC00916288
Greg LevyGREG LEVY FOR SENATEC00918839
Jon HustedHUSTED FOR SENATEC00896019
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Sherrod Brown$68,409,199.85through 2026-10-14
Greg Levy$132,711.94through 2026-10-14
Jon Husted$19,894,785.94through 2026-10-22
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Sherrod Brown$63,956,396.53through 2026-10-14
Greg Levy$107,924.76through 2026-10-14
Jon Husted$15,655,689.37through 2026-10-22
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Sherrod Brown$4,452,803.32through 2026-10-14
Greg Levy$26,915.85through 2026-10-14
Jon Husted$4,239,096.57through 2026-10-22
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Sherrod Brown47.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Greg Levy2.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Jon Husted47.0%Echelon Insights · 2026-10-23
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Sherrod BrownR+5seat-level
Greg LevyR+5seat-level
Jon HustedR+5seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.
Polling
10 listed · newest first| Pollster / sponsor | Field dates | Sample | Brown | Levy | Husted | Others |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Echelon InsightsNetChoice | 2026-10-16 to 2026-10-23 | LV · n=508 | 47.0% | 2.0% | 47.0% | Bill Redpath 1.0% |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-21 to 2026-10-22 | LV · n=1,200 | 47.0% | not named | 44.0% | none |
| VoteHub/VerasightVoteHub | 2026-10-01 to 2026-10-20 | LV · n=531 | 47.5% | 1.0% | 43.6% | Bill Redpath 1.1% |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. ResearchFox News | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-19 | LV · n=1,592 | 52.0% | not named | 47.0% | none |
| Marist University | 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-18 | LV · n=1,176 | 48.0% | not named | 44.0% | none |
| New River Strategies/GS Strategy GroupThe Cook Political Report | 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-13 | LV · n=959 | 49.0% | 4.0% | 43.0% | Bill Redpath 3.0% |
| Bowling Green State University/YouGov | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-09 | LV · n=1,000 | 48.0% | 5.0% | 42.0% | Bill Redpath 3.0% |
| co/efficient | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06 | LV · n=925 | 45.0% | not named | 46.0% | none |
| co/efficient | 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-06 | LV · n=925 | 43.0% | 3.0% | 44.0% | Bill Redpath 1.0% |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-09-29 to 2026-10-05 | LV · n=760 | 49.0% | not named | 43.0% | none |
19 more poll(s) of this matchup are in the data file and are not listed here.
Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).
Seat lean · Hume PVI
R+5
- Lean (D minus R, points)
- -5.386
- Presidential cycles
- 2020, 2024
- Computed
- 2026-06-08
Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.
Prior result, this seat
2022 general
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % of total |
|---|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | REP | 2,192,114 | 53.06% |
| Tim Ryan | DEM | 1,939,489 | 46.94% |
Total votes 4,131,603 · winning margin 6.11% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)
Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026 or Oct 22, 2026, by candidate) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Rating: Cook Political Report · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.
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