OK-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 1 · Open seat

DEMNominee

John Croisant

3%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Mark Tedford

97%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

97% Mark Tedford · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Mark Tedford 97%

DEM John Croisant 3%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+14 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 60.4% 2024 general · margin 25.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMCroisantREPTedford

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

John Croisant$217,468.86

Mark Tedford$2,490,273.70

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

John Croisant$179,179.74

Mark Tedford$2,332,928.63

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

John Croisant$38,289.12

Mark Tedford$157,345.07

Latest pollpercent, as stored

John CroisantNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Mark TedfordNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

John CroisantR+14seat-level

Mark TedfordR+14seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+14

Lean (D minus R, points): -14.106

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Kevin Hern	REP	188,832	60.43%
Dennis Baker	DEM	107,903	34.53%
Mark David Garcia Sanders	OTH	15,766	5.05%

Total votes 312,501 · winning margin 25.90% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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