Influence no longer invisible Races · OK-02 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Oklahoma · 2026

Oklahoma District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Oklahoma District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Brandon Wade
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Ronnie Hopkins
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Josh Brecheen incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJosh Brecheen

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Josh Brecheen · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Josh Brecheen 99%
DEM Brandon Wade 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+29 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 74.2% 2024 general · margin 52.7%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMWadeINDHopkinsREPBrecheen
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brandon Wade$7,983.28
Ronnie HopkinsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Josh Brecheen$250,175.81
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brandon Wade$4,548.11
Ronnie HopkinsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Josh Brecheen$249,671.16
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brandon Wade$-279.63
Ronnie HopkinsNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Josh Brecheen$71,200.53
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brandon WadeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ronnie HopkinsNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Josh BrecheenNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brandon WadeR+29seat-level
Ronnie HopkinsR+29seat-level
Josh BrecheenR+29seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+29
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -28.719

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Josh BrecheenREP238,12374.18%
    Brandon WadeDEM68,84121.44%
    Ronnie HopkinsOTH14,0614.38%

    Total votes 321,025 · winning margin 52.73% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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