OK-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 3 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Suzie Byrd

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Frank Lucas incumbent

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentFrank Lucas

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Frank Lucas · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Frank Lucas 99%

DEM Suzie Byrd 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+24 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMByrdREPLucas

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Suzie Byrd$18,188.03

Frank Lucas$1,055,084.93

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Suzie Byrd$8,679.86

Frank Lucas$1,102,896.54

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Suzie Byrd$9,508.17

Frank Lucas$570,473.65

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Suzie ByrdNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Frank LucasNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Suzie ByrdR+24seat-level

Frank LucasR+24seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+24

Lean (D minus R, points): -24.493

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Frank Lucas	REP	1	100.00%

Total votes 1 · winning margin Not available of total

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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