Influence no longer invisible Races · OK-04 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Oklahoma · 2026

Oklahoma District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Oklahoma District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Mitchell Jacob
2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Rocco Bonacci
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Tom Cole incumbent
98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentTom Cole

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
98% Tom Cole · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Tom Cole 98%
DEM Mitchell Jacob 2%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+19 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 65.2% 2024 general · margin 37.0%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMJacobINDBonacciREPCole
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Mitchell Jacob$121,499.59
Rocco BonacciNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tom Cole$4,281,680.96
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Mitchell Jacob$102,048.95
Rocco BonacciNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tom Cole$3,691,559.72
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Mitchell Jacob$19,450.64
Rocco BonacciNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Tom Cole$2,370,394.67
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Mitchell JacobNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Rocco BonacciNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Tom ColeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Mitchell JacobR+19seat-level
Rocco BonacciR+19seat-level
Tom ColeR+19seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+19
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -18.723

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Tom ColeREP199,96265.25%
    Mary BrannonDEM86,64128.27%
    James StacyOTH19,8706.48%

    Total votes 306,473 · winning margin 36.98% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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