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Race · U.S. House · Oklahoma · 2026

Oklahoma District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Oklahoma District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Oklahoma District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jena Nelson
12%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Austin Nieves
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Robert P. Henri
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Stephanie I. Bice incumbent
88%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentStephanie I. Bice

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
88% Stephanie I. Bice · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Stephanie I. Bice 88%
DEM Jena Nelson 12%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+13 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat REP 60.7% 2024 general · margin 21.4%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMNelsonINDNievesINDHenriREPBice
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jena Nelson$821,988.98
Austin NievesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert P. HenriNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Stephanie I. Bice$2,476,528.64
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jena Nelson$713,446.42
Austin NievesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert P. HenriNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Stephanie I. Bice$2,438,488.09
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jena Nelson$108,542.56
Austin NievesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Robert P. HenriNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Stephanie I. Bice$1,123,989.45
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jena NelsonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Austin NievesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Robert P. HenriNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Stephanie I. BiceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jena NelsonR+13seat-level
Austin NievesR+13seat-level
Robert P. HenriR+13seat-level
Stephanie I. BiceR+13seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    R+13
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -12.576

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Stephanie I. BiceREP207,63660.69%
    Madison HornDEM134,47139.31%

    Total votes 342,107 · winning margin 21.39% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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