Influence no longer invisible Races · OK Senate 2026
Hidden Levers
Race · U.S. Senate · Oklahoma · 2026

Oklahoma · U.S. Senate · 2026

Seat U.S. Senate, Class 2

← All 2026 races

Share this race Download share card (PNG)

Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Open seat
DEMNominee
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
INDOn the ballot
Curtis Stinnett
—Not published for this candidate
INDOn the ballot
Ron Meinhardt
—Not published for this candidate
LIBOn the ballot
Sevier White
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Kevin Hern
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Kevin Hern · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates
REP Kevin Hern 99%
DEM N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+18 cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat REP 62.9% 2020 general · margin 30.2%

Side by side

5 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMThomasINDStinnettINDMeinhardtLIBWhiteREPHern
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas$115,953.98
Curtis StinnettNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ron Meinhardt$15,902.61
Sevier WhiteNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kevin Hern$10,862,233.27
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas$92,788.73
Curtis StinnettNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ron Meinhardt$14,306.54
Sevier WhiteNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kevin Hern$8,050,246.59
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas$24,101.59
Curtis StinnettNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Ron Meinhardt$1,596.07
Sevier WhiteNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Kevin Hern$2,811,986.68
Latest pollpercent, as stored
N'Kiyla Jasmine ThomasNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Curtis StinnettNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Ron MeinhardtNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Sevier WhiteNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Kevin HernNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
N'Kiyla Jasmine ThomasR+18seat-level
Curtis StinnettR+18seat-level
Ron MeinhardtR+18seat-level
Sevier WhiteR+18seat-level
Kevin HernR+18seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2024
    R+18
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    -17.549
    Presidential cycles
    2020, 2024
    Computed
    2026-06-08

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2020 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jim InhofeREP979,14062.91%
    Abby BroylesDEM509,76332.75%
    Robert MurphyLIB34,4352.21%
    Joan FarrOTH21,6521.39%
    A. D. NesbitOTH11,3710.73%

    Total votes 1,556,361 · winning margin 30.16% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

    Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.