Influence no longer invisible Races · OR-03 House 2026
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Race · U.S. House · Oregon · 2026

Oregon District 3 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Oregon District 3

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Race header

U.S. House, Oregon District 3 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Maxine Dexter incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Loran Ayles
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMaxine Dexter

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Maxine Dexter · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Maxine Dexter 99%
REP Loran Ayles 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+22 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 67.7% 2024 general · margin 42.5%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMDexterREPAyles
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Maxine Dexter$1,297,974.78
Loran AylesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Maxine Dexter$1,131,820.95
Loran AylesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Maxine Dexter$188,640.20
Loran AylesNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Maxine DexterNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Loran AylesNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Maxine DexterD+22seat-level
Loran AylesD+22seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+22
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +22.393

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Maxine DexterDEM226,40567.71%
    Joanna HarbourREP84,34425.22%
    David W. WalkerOTH10,2453.06%
    Joe MeyerGRN10,1063.02%
    David K. FroschOTH2,4590.74%
    MiscellaneousOTH8100.24%

    Total votes 334,369 · winning margin 42.49% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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