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Race · U.S. House · Oregon · 2026

Oregon District 4 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Oregon District 4

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Race header

U.S. House, Oregon District 4 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Val T. Hoyle incumbent
95%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
GRNOn the ballot
Justin Filip
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
Monique DeSpain
5%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentVal T. Hoyle

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
95% Val T. Hoyle · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Val T. Hoyle 95%
REP Monique DeSpain 5%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+4 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 51.7% 2024 general · margin 7.8%

Side by side

3 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMHoyleGRNFilipREPDespain
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Val T. Hoyle$1,652,428.49
Justin FilipNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Monique DeSpain$921,875.97
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Val T. Hoyle$1,555,162.54
Justin FilipNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Monique DeSpain$768,300.23
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Val T. Hoyle$186,655.55
Justin FilipNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Monique DeSpain$153,575.74
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Val T. HoyleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Justin FilipNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Monique DeSpainNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Val T. HoyleD+4seat-level
Justin FilipD+4seat-level
Monique DeSpainD+4seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+4
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +4.299

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Val T. HoyleDEM195,86251.71%
    Monique DespainREP166,43043.94%
    Justin FilipGRN10,3152.72%
    Dan BahlenLIB5,7041.51%
    MiscellaneousOTH4540.12%

    Total votes 378,765 · winning margin 7.77% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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