OR-06 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Oregon District 6 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Andrea Salinas incumbent

94%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

David Russ

6%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentAndrea Salinas

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

94% Andrea Salinas · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Andrea Salinas 94%

REP David Russ 6%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+4 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 53.3% 2024 general · margin 6.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMSalinasREPRuss

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Andrea Salinas$1,984,298.52

David Russ$13,165.84

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Andrea Salinas$1,409,715.78

David Russ$27,985.74

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Andrea Salinas$636,057.38

David Russ$-549.90

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Andrea SalinasNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

David RussNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Andrea SalinasD+4seat-level

David RussD+4seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+4

Lean (D minus R, points): +3.929

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Andrea Salinas	DEM	180,869	53.34%
Mike Erickson	REP	157,634	46.49%
Miscellaneous	OTH	562	0.17%

Total votes 339,065 · winning margin 6.85% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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