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Race · U.S. Senate · Oregon · 2026

Oregon · U.S. Senate · 2026

Seat U.S. Senate, Class 2

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Race header

U.S. Senate, Class 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Jeff Merkley incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
LIBOn the ballot
Gary Dye
—Not published for this candidate
OTHOn the ballot
Chris Henry
—Not published for this candidate
REPNominee
David Brock Smith
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentJeff Merkley

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Jeff Merkley · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Jeff Merkley 99%
REP David Brock Smith 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+7 cycles 2020, 2024
Prior result, this seat DEM 57.0% 2020 general · margin 17.6%

Side by side

4 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMMerkleyLIBDyeOTHHenryREPSmith
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Jeff Merkley$5,376,935.12
Gary DyeNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris HenryNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Brock Smith$311,173.65
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Jeff Merkley$3,022,683.51
Gary DyeNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris HenryNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Brock Smith$266,975.96
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Jeff Merkley$6,621,250.26
Gary DyeNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Chris HenryNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
David Brock Smith$44,197.69
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Jeff MerkleyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Gary DyeNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Chris HenryNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
David Brock SmithNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Jeff MerkleyD+7seat-level
Gary DyeD+7seat-level
Chris HenryD+7seat-level
David Brock SmithD+7seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2024
    D+7
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +7.468
    Presidential cycles
    2020, 2024
    Computed
    2026-06-08

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the state, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2020 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Jeff MerkleyDEM1,321,04756.97%
    Jo Rae PerkinsREP912,81439.36%
    Gary DyeLIB42,7471.84%
    Ibrahim A TaherGRN42,2391.82%

    Total votes 2,318,847 · winning margin 17.60% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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