PA-01 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 1 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Bob Harvie

52%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Brian K. Fitzpatrick incumbent

48%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentBrian K. Fitzpatrick

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

52% Bob Harvie · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Bob Harvie 52%

REP Brian K. Fitzpatrick 48%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Harvie 48.0% · Fitzpatrick 49.0% GQR / House Majority PAC · 2026-08-23

Seat lean (Hume PVI) EVEN as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 56.4% 2024 general · margin 12.8%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMHarvieREPFitzpatrick

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Bob Harvie$3,167,942.07

Brian K. Fitzpatrick$8,021,375.59

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Bob Harvie$2,758,529.53

Brian K. Fitzpatrick$11,734,808.67

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Bob Harvie$409,412.54

Brian K. Fitzpatrick$709,096.90

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Bob Harvie48.0%GQR · 2026-08-23

Brian K. Fitzpatrick49.0%GQR · 2026-08-23

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Bob HarvieEVENseat-level

Brian K. FitzpatrickEVENseat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

1 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-08-23

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Harvie	Fitzpatrick	Others
GQRHouse Majority PAC	2026-08-19 to 2026-08-23	LV · n=400	48.0%	49.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

EVEN

Lean (D minus R, points): -0.217

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Brian K. Fitzpatrick	REP	261,390	56.40%
Ashley Ehasz	DEM	202,042	43.60%

Total votes 463,432 · winning margin 12.81% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

Federal law prohibits the sale or use of contributor information copied from FEC reports, by any person, for the purpose of soliciting contributions (including charitable contributions) or for any commercial purpose. 52 U.S.C. §30111(a)(4); 11 C.F.R. §104.15. Hidden Levers does not provide contributor contact information.