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Race · U.S. House · Pennsylvania · 2026

Pennsylvania District 2 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 2

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Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 2 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Brendan F. Boyle incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Jessica Arriaga
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentBrendan F. Boyle

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Brendan F. Boyle · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Brendan F. Boyle 99%
REP Jessica Arriaga 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+21 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 71.5% 2024 general · margin 42.9%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMBoyleREPArriaga
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Brendan F. Boyle$2,883,854.83
Jessica ArriagaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Brendan F. Boyle$827,891.26
Jessica ArriagaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Brendan F. Boyle$5,894,246.92
Jessica ArriagaNot available No FEC summary is available for this candidate.
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Brendan F. BoyleNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Jessica ArriagaNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Brendan F. BoyleD+21seat-level
Jessica ArriagaD+21seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+21
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +20.867

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Brendan F. BoyleDEM193,69171.46%
    Aaron BashirREP77,35528.54%

    Total votes 271,046 · winning margin 42.92% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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