PA-03 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 3 · Open seat

DEMNominee

Chris Rabb

99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

INDOn the ballot

Dennis Mahoney

1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentNot available

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

99% Chris Rabb · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Chris Rabb 99%

IND Dennis Mahoney 1%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+39 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat DEM 100.0% 2024 general · margin not in file

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-09-30, 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMRabbINDMahoney

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Chris Rabb$1,457,911.98through 2026-10-14

Dennis Mahoney$37,384.63through 2026-09-30

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Chris Rabb$1,367,032.00through 2026-10-14

Dennis Mahoney$26,567.97through 2026-09-30

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Chris Rabb$90,879.98through 2026-10-14

Dennis Mahoney$2,564.91through 2026-09-30

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Chris RabbNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Dennis MahoneyNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Chris RabbD+39seat-level

Dennis MahoneyD+39seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

D+39

Lean (D minus R, points): +39.163

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Dwight Evans	DEM	340,223	100.00%

Total votes 340,223 · winning margin Not available of total

Sources: FEC filings (through Sep 30, 2026 or Oct 14, 2026, by candidate) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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