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Race · U.S. House · Pennsylvania · 2026

Pennsylvania District 5 · U.S. House · 2026

Seat U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 5

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Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 5 · Incumbent running
DEMNominee
Mary Gay Scanlon incumbent
99%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
REPNominee
Nick Manganaro
1%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28
IncumbentMary Gay Scanlon

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026
99% Mary Gay Scanlon · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates
DEM Mary Gay Scanlon 99%
REP Nick Manganaro 1%
  • Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets
Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI) D+14 as of cycle 2020
Prior result, this seat DEM 65.3% 2024 general · margin 30.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures
FEC summary through 2026-10-14
MeasureDEMScanlonREPManganaro
Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees
Mary Gay Scanlon$1,340,757.14
Nick Manganaro$21,318.18
Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date
Mary Gay Scanlon$1,186,796.71
Nick Manganaro$11,983.38
Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period
Mary Gay Scanlon$471,706.20
Nick Manganaro$9,334.80
Latest pollpercent, as stored
Mary Gay ScanlonNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Nick ManganaroNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.
Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate
Mary Gay ScanlonD+14seat-level
Nick ManganaroD+14seat-level
Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

    Seat lean · Hume PVI

    as of cycle 2020
    D+14
    Lean (D minus R, points)
    +13.941

    Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

    Prior result, this seat

    election returns

    2024 general

    CandidatePartyVotes% of total
    Mary Gay ScanlonDEM267,75465.29%
    Alfeia GoodwinREP142,35534.71%

    Total votes 410,109 · winning margin 30.58% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

    Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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