PA-07 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

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U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 7 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Bob Brooks

73%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Ryan Mackenzie incumbent

27%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentRyan Mackenzie

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

73% Bob Brooks · DemocratChance to win, between the two named candidates

DEM Bob Brooks 73%

REP Ryan Mackenzie 27%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Mackenzie 43.0% · Brooks 49.0% Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · 2026-10-15

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+2 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 50.5% 2024 general · margin 1.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMBrooksREPMackenzie

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Bob Brooks$5,347,353.38

Ryan Mackenzie$5,296,663.91

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Bob Brooks$4,605,774.87

Ryan Mackenzie$4,329,911.24

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Bob Brooks$741,578.51

Ryan Mackenzie$1,069,992.58

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Bob Brooks49.0%Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · 2026-10-15

Ryan Mackenzie43.0%Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion · 2026-10-15

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Bob BrooksR+2seat-level

Ryan MackenzieR+2seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

3 listed · newest first

Newest field end 2026-10-15

Pollster / sponsor	Field dates	Sample	Brooks	Mackenzie	Others
Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion	2026-10-06 to 2026-10-15	LV · n=529	49.0%	43.0%	none
Franklin & Marshall College	2026-09-09 to 2026-09-20	RV · n=357	45.0%	40.0%	none
GBAO StrategiesHouse Majority PAC	2026-06-29 to 2026-07-02	LV · n=550	47.0%	43.0%	none

Polling data CC BY 4.0 (FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub).

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+2

Lean (D minus R, points): -2.205

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Ryan Mackenzie	REP	203,688	50.50%
Susan Wild	DEM	199,626	49.50%

Total votes 403,314 · winning margin 1.01% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Polls: FiveThirtyEight / VoteHub (CC BY 4.0) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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