PA-08 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 8 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Paige Cognetti

49%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Robert P. Bresnahan Jr. incumbent

51%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentRobert P. Bresnahan Jr.

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

51% Robert P. Bresnahan Jr. · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Robert P. Bresnahan Jr. 51%

DEM Paige Cognetti 49%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+4 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 50.8% 2024 general · margin 1.6%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMCognettiREPBresnahan

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Paige Cognetti$7,502,359.43

Robert P. Bresnahan Jr.$6,519,139.21

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Paige Cognetti$7,258,687.42

Robert P. Bresnahan Jr.$5,839,567.95

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Paige Cognetti$243,672.01

Robert P. Bresnahan Jr.$732,723.63

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Paige CognettiNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Robert P. Bresnahan Jr.Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Paige CognettiR+4seat-level

Robert P. Bresnahan Jr.R+4seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+4

Lean (D minus R, points): -4.250

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Rob Bresnahan, JR.	REP	195,663	50.81%
Matt Cartwright	DEM	189,411	49.19%

Total votes 385,074 · winning margin 1.62% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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