PA-09 House 2026 · Hidden Levers

Race header

U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 9 · Incumbent running

DEMNominee

Rachel Wallace

2%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

REPNominee

Daniel Meuser incumbent

98%Hume Outlook · Hume model estimate · as of 2026-10-28

IncumbentDaniel Meuser

Hume Outlook

hume-2026.10-r1 · Forecast as of Oct 28, 2026

98% Daniel Meuser · RepublicanChance to win, between the two named candidates

REP Daniel Meuser 98%

DEM Rachel Wallace 2%

Hume model estimate · built on polls, fundamentals, and markets

Latest poll Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI) R+21 as of cycle 2020

Prior result, this seat REP 70.5% 2024 general · margin 41.0%

Side by side

2 candidates · 5 measures

FEC summary through 2026-10-14

MeasureDEMWallaceREPMeuser

Total receiptsUSD, cycle to date, all authorized committees

Rachel Wallace$1,145,383.40

Daniel Meuser$2,129,641.48

Total disbursementsUSD, cycle to date

Rachel Wallace$894,624.13

Daniel Meuser$2,133,497.62

Cash on handUSD, close of the covered period

Rachel Wallace$250,759.27

Daniel Meuser$29,790.59

Latest pollpercent, as stored

Rachel WallaceNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Daniel MeuserNot available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean (Hume PVI)identical for every candidate

Rachel WallaceR+21seat-level

Daniel MeuserR+21seat-level

Money is each candidate's FEC summary: every committee the candidate has authorized, combined, as filed through the coverage date shown.

Polling

0 listed · newest first

Not available No public polls of this race in our data yet.

Seat lean · Hume PVI

as of cycle 2020

R+21

Lean (D minus R, points): -21.123

Hume PVI is Hidden Levers' own two-party presidential-lean index for the district, computed on the district's current lines, not the Cook PVI.

Prior result, this seat

election returns

2024 general

Candidate	Party	Votes	% of total
Daniel Meuser	REP	276,212	70.51%
Amanda Waldman	DEM	115,523	29.49%

Total votes 391,735 · winning margin 41.02% of total (margin computed here from the cited vote counts)

Sources: FEC filings (through Oct 14, 2026) · Prior result: MIT Election Data + Science Lab (CC0) · Hume PVI and Hume Outlook: Hidden Levers estimates.

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